CHEMICAL MARKET

Sulfur

The sulfur market is undergoing a period of weakening due to declining demand in major consuming nations such as China, India, and Brazil. In China specifically, preparations for the Lunar New Year holiday have stalled spot transactions for February. Negotiated prices for February shipments are currently lower than previous levels. Although international oil and gas companies in Qatar and the UAE announced slight increases in list prices compared to January—ranging from $520 to $530/ton—actual tenders have shown a decline. Notably, Formosa Group concluded a tender at a price approximately $37/ton lower than expected. The outlook suggests prices will continue to adjust slightly downward but may recover post-holiday as a new wave of purchasing emerges.

Phosphate Rock and Yellow Phosphorus

The Southeast Asian phosphate rock market has recorded a significant price drop, with offers falling by approximately $10/ton month-on-month. In Indonesia, importers successfully secured Egyptian ore at under $70/ton for February shipments. Conversely, prices in the Chinese market remain stable as many mines have suspended production due to freezing weather and holidays; trade is not expected to recover until March. Regarding yellow phosphorus, the market is in a fierce tug-of-war. Producers in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Guizhou are attempting to maintain prices between RMB 23,300 and 23,500/ton. However, buyer sentiment remains pessimistic, with only small volumes purchased for essential needs, leading to low market activity and a subdued trading atmosphere.

FERTILIZER MARKET

Urea

The Urea market is heating up, with prices skyrocketing following the FLA meeting and strong signals regarding India’s upcoming tender. In the Middle East, tenders for March shipments have exceeded expectations, surpassing $480/ton. Supply in Southeast Asia is currently very tight, pushing prices in this region up to $490/ton. Other markets, such as Egypt and the US, have also seen robust growth, with prices in some areas exceeding the $500/ton threshold. However, experts warn that the market may be nearing its peak as farmer affordability weakens. Barring unexpected events, future developments will depend entirely on India’s tender results and the recovery of gas supply from Iran.

MAP/DAP

DAP prices in Southeast Asia rose by $20/ton, reaching the $700–$750/ton range. Notably, a large volume of Russian fertilizer arrived at Vietnamese ports on February 4th after transiting through Thailand. Specifically, about 30,000 tons of Russian DAP were transported to Vietnam to supply the domestic market. As China continues to restrict exports while awaiting clearer signals on 2026 policies, Southeast Asian nations are seeking alternative supplies from Russia, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia. In other regions like Brazil and Argentina, MAP prices have also surged due to the lack of Chinese supply, causing concern among farmers regarding fertilizer shortages for the upcoming soybean season.

NPK

The NPK market shows clear geographical divergence. In India, import demand is rising as the government announced plans to cut subsidies for phosphate and potassium fertilizers for the next fiscal year, prompting importers to place early orders. A 10-26-26 shipment was closed at $495/ton, with target prices for March approaching $515/ton. In Europe, NPK 15-15-15 prices remain stable in the Northwest but have risen sharply in Spain and Italy due to the impact of the new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) fees. Although high raw material costs are supporting selling prices, actual purchasing power in some areas is limited by prolonged heavy rain. The market outlook remains stable in the short term due to high production costs.

STEEL MARKET

Vietnam

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Market

Over the past week, Vietnam's HRC market recorded notable fluctuations in offers from both domestic and imported sources. The highlight was a major domestic producer announcing new monthly offers for SS400 and SAE1006 grades at $518–$520/ton CIF for March delivery—an increase of $8–$9/ton compared to January. However, due to a weaker USD, this increase was less pronounced when calculated in VND. Domestic producers are optimistic about the March outlook despite a lack of clear recovery in actual demand. Reports suggest Vietnamese mills can meet supply for large buyers at a more competitive price of $506–$508/ton CIF. Regarding imports, Indian HRC maintains its competitive position even as offers trend toward $500–$505/ton CFR for April delivery. However, many Vietnamese buyers deem this too high, as March inventory remains available at $486–$488/ton CFR. Other sources, such as Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea, are quoted between $500 and $520/ton CFR. The significant gap between offers and buyer expectations has made finalizing new import deals difficult.

Construction Steel and Downstream Products

The domestic construction steel market witnessed urgent activity at key projects this week. Product consumption and transport remained high to serve construction plans through the Lunar New Year. Steel dealers are also actively stockpiling for post-holiday projects. Regarding pricing, dealers are applying flexible, differentiated rates based on customer segments and transport volumes. Notably, buyer sentiment is shifting toward prioritizing domestic supply as cheap imported sources become limited. Additionally, international factors are indirectly affecting Vietnam; high inventories of Southeast Asian HRC at competitive prices are pressuring export markets like Spain. Simultaneously, Iranian slab shipments are heading toward Southeast Asia at $440–$445/ton CFR, forcing domestic producers to carefully calculate price strategies to maintain market share.

Raw Materials and Scrap

The domestic scrap market reflects caution among importers. Due to high scrap prices from Japan and South Korea, Vietnamese enterprises are prioritizing lower-cost products to optimize expenses. Domestically, Northern scrap prices (excluding VAT) range from 8.5 to 8.9 million VND/ton, while Southern prices are higher at 8.8 to 9.3 million VND/ton. Logistics costs remain a critical factor, with Northern-to-Southern freight rates holding steady at 1,250–1,350 VND/kg since last year, pressuring cost prices for Southern electric arc furnace (EAF) producers.

International

Long Steel

The Asian long steel market is seeing clear regional divergence. In Vietnam, local mills are raising prices, providing psychological momentum for the region. In Singapore, Malaysian supply for common sizes like 10mm is tightening, giving Chinese-origin steel a competitive edge.

While offers remain stable, actual transaction volumes have not yet surged due to the upcoming holidays. SAE1008 wire rod orders from China spiked last month as non-VAT sources exited the market and downstream units prepared inventory early. In India and the UAE, prices are trending upward due to high raw material costs and positive local construction demand.

HRC

The HRC market is in a price tug-of-war. Major Chinese mills are holding offers high due to limited February export supply. In Vietnam, Chinese HRC is offered around $485/ton, but buyers remain cautious due to trade defense factors. Meanwhile, Indian and Indonesian sources are pushing for $490–$500/ton, creating a significant gap with Vietnamese importers' expectations.

In the Middle East, UAE pipe makers continue to purchase while monitoring developments from China and Japan. In European and US markets, prices are stable at high levels as mills tighten spot supply and extend lead times to April. Supply constraints, rather than a surge in consumption, remain the primary price driver.

Steel Slab

The global slab market operated sideways this week. In Southeast Asia, specifically the Philippines, import prices softened slightly due to futures market volatility and buyer pressure. Vietnamese slab has become a significant competitor to Chinese goods due to proximity and pricing flexibility. This multi-party competition has slowed transactions in the Philippines as buyers seek lower bids.

In Russia and Turkey, prices are also under pressure from weak demand and EU tax barriers. Turkish mills face squeezed margins as scrap costs remain high while finished steel prices weaken. The market is now waiting for post-holiday demand signals to determine the price trend for Q2 2026.